In this NZDJPY H4 chart, we see that strong selling volume has occurred in the down wave to (a) after the high, compared to the very last up-waves to the high (227 and 138 volume).
After the down move (a), there was a pullback up to (b). If we add up all the volumes inside the pullback to (b), the volume up isn't too far off from the down wave to (a), but the move was only around 50% of the down wave to (a).
This is Effort vs Result. Definitely Bearish.
Once price has resumed downwards, I entered a Short. The Stop Loss was originally set to above the high but later moved to the previous swing high. Ignore the Take Profit line shown in the screenshot as it's just for initial use.
I foresee that due to the heavy buying volume in the pullback to (b), price isn't ready yet to move down from the swing low at (a), but will instead test (a) then bounce up again as buyers come in.
In the long run though, I think that prices should move downwards.
For now, I will set the Take Profit somewhere at the level of (a).